in 1992 incumbent president was down nine points in mid-september and was tied with bill clinton by the end of october. the clinton eventually won. former clinton pollster is questioning the assumptions being made in today's polls. >> these polls are assuming that you have the same high level of african-american, latino and young people vote in 2012 that you had in 2008. >> obama campaign senior advisor david axelrod said they widely vary so when they all pointed in one direction, they are all wrong. but we are planning for a close race as we always have. another democratic strategist offered this assessment. >> the race isn't over. this can move back three or four times between now and november 6th. >> romney you try to create that momentum. >> of the eight presidential races where the leads were cut or flipped by the opponent, average of comebacks was roughly 35% and in some cases it was the debate that moved the needle. >> gregg: as a reminder we are daig days away from that first presidential debate. we'll have live coverage of the event hosted by megyn kelly and bret baier. that is